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Sun update: "firehose" turning our way later today?

Posted by Bret B on March 15, 2015, 9:58 am, in reply to "Slight chance of rain in next 10 days?"
187.148.141.155

We just got our first sprinkle of the weekend, but there's quite a bit more coming according to the forecast sites and computer models. The raw computer models are gradually agreeing with the Weather Underground forecast, so I have to agree that we should expect around 4" total through Tuesday.

Just keep in mind that there is a large uncertainty caused by being so close to the sharply defined edge of the "firehose" that is currently soaking Michoacán and Colima. Our actuals could be a little as 1" or as much as 10" (those extreme totals are showing in all the models, within 100 miles of La Manz.)

W.U. forecast: ( http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760? )


The IR loop shows the "firehose" quite well:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html

And here is the more zoomed-in view from CONAGUA (don't forget to refresh this animated GIF every time you look at it):
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/satelite/goesE/co/loop.gif

The IR loops show the center of the firehose well south in Michoacán, but the TRMM satellite data shows that the actual falling rain is mostly in the northern side of the firehose, so "loops can be deceiving..."

TRMM near-realtime rainfall from a few hours ago shows some of the heaviest and widest rainfall rates hitting the coast that I have ever seen, including the last few years of hurricanes. Up to 0.5"/hr sustained rate, which is very heavy by TRMM standards, was centered on northern Michoacán, as far as I can tell: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif


The TRMM 7-day accumulation ( http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_accumulation_zoom.gif ) shows 6-8" has ALREADY fallen onshore near the Colima/Michoacán border:


I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of flash flooding and mudslides in the hardest-hosed areas. Forget June; welcome to September weather (minus the heat!)

Stay tuned for more updates if anything changes...
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