Rodeo days weather
Posted by Bret B  on February 5, 2015, 6:07 pm
187.148.141.155
I've had a few requests for a weather forecast for this big event, understandable after the unusual rains just a few days ago:
Shorter version: Sorry, but I DO see a chance for some light showers today and tonight. Hopefully not much more than a sprinkle or two, but possibly more. Bring a baggie for your camera at the Farola tonight just in case, but don't let the forecast scare you off! I don't think umbrellas would work in the crowds...
Beyond tonight I can't say, except I don't see any heavy rains threatening in the near future. The weather is too changeable right now. I'll try to post updates when I can through the weekend.
Longer version: The Weather Underground forecast, the Mexican forecast, and the GFS computer model show no rain all the way through the weekend. The other two models on the Mexican site are down right now.
However, the IR satellite loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html ) shows lots of thick high-altitude cloudiness streaming overhead today (just look outside!) Normally that doesn't necessarily mean rain, but a few days ago it did.
When I checked the TRMM satellite data earlier today it showed a large area of significant rain and thunderstorms, but WAY down to our southwest (800-900 miles.) Usually rain down there never makes it to the coast because of our protective ridge of high pressure along the western coast of Mexico.
But the rain got a little closer during the day and then the latest data refresh from a few hours ago shows light/moderate showers within 200 miles, including a few pixels of rain within 50 miles of us:
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif
SO the trend is getting damper right now. Hopefully it dries out and stabilizes soon! Next update tomorrow morning if I can.
|
------------------------Re: Rodeo days weather
Posted by Terri M. on February 5, 2015, 10:44 pm, in reply to "Rodeo days weather"
187.148.173.230
Thank you Bret we appreciate your reports, especially during Rodeo.
|
------------------------Re: Rodeo days weather - Friday update
Posted by Bret B on February 6, 2015, 9:35 am, in reply to "Re: Rodeo days weather"
187.148.141.155
Happy Ejido Day!
Well, I'm glad the 1st Farola night was dry!
For today, I would say the chance of sprinkles is a little less than yesterday, but not zero. And expect plenty of cloudiness from time to time.
Gory details:
Earlier today there was even more thick cloudiness streaming over our area than yesterday, but it has cleared some in the last few hours: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-avn.html
Off to the west of the cloudiness you can see the counterclockwise circulation of an upper-level low that has been persisting there for a few days. This low is part of the force driving the clouds our way. The other driver is the southern branch of the jet stream. That can be seen using the display of the 250 hPa altitude (about 10,500 meters, or 35,000 feet) winds modeled on that cool site Daniel discovered: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-102.49,15.85,1024
There is still no rain forecast by the few sources I have that aren't dead right now.
The TRMM also shows no rain currently within 400-500 miles:
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/americas/americas_3hrly_zoom.gif
Next update tomorrow morning unless something happens today. Enjoy the festivities!
|
------------------------Re: Rodeo days weather - Friday update
Posted by shanti and mayama on February 6, 2015, 12:57 pm, in reply to "Re: Rodeo days weather - Friday update"
187.148.187.155|
Really enjoying your posts. The visuals are great. Thanks Bret
|
------------------------Re: Rodeo days weather - Saturday update
Posted by Bret B on February 7, 2015, 8:50 am, in reply to "Re: Rodeo days weather - Friday update"
187.148.141.155
Looks pretty good for today and probably for tomorrow. Near-zero chance of rain. A few high clouds occasionally (good for making sunsets?) Enjoy!
This is my last update unless something crops up tomorrow.
|
------------------------
|
|
|
|
|
