I was actually working on that for my own reasons, Dave. Great timing! I've been busy with other things today, but I think I have enough to go with now.
By the way, I can't really look much beyond the next few days. Certainly not 10 days. (I wish!)
I think we have a small chance of rain this Thursday (tomorrow), Friday and Saturday. Maybe 20%? But no heavy rain; less than 1/2" per day? Then the chance of rain decreases after that to roughly zero out as far as I can see (early next week?)
A few details:
> The W. U. says <10% chance the next 3 days, then back to zero. That would be great, but I think the other resources need to be considered also (keep reading.) http://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:MXJO0760?MR=1
> The Mexican CONAGUA forecast ( http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/discusion/discusion.html )issued just a few hours ago has parts of Jalisco getting a 60-80% chance of 0-1" per day on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. They also mention some of the same features that led to our last deluge: a new cold-cored low pressure system (Winter Storm #10) forming up around Tijuana, and copious Pacific moisture being swept up to our coastline by an arm of the sub-tropical jet stream.
The good news is that these features seem to be weaker and drier than last week. But just call me gun-shy, but I can't dismiss these features down to near-zero like the W.U. does.
> The GFS model ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/gfs/crb_p24i_loop_12.html ) shows an arm of rain reaching for us from the southwest for the next 3 days. It never touches us, but that's too close for a zero-rain forecast.
> This graphic ( http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec3.html ) shows the arm of rain similar to the GFS model. It actually tries to forecast the total rain accumulation for the next 8 days, and then below it is another graphic predicting the following 8 days. Big grain of salt with that one!
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