Posted by Bret B on April 11, 2015, 4:43 pm
187.148.213.46
This was a surprise I found on one of my English-language news sites covering Mexico. I didn't realize that the Mexican weather forecasting office (CONAGUA/SMN) made their own hurricane count predictions for the eastern Pacific basin, and especially this far in advance of the start of the season (May 15 - Nov 30.) So don't rely on this too much at this early date.
Article: http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hurricanes-pacific-year/
CONAGUA/SMN press release on April 10, 2015 (in Spanish):
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/noticias/2015/Comunicado237-15.pdf
My re-organization and translation of the highlights (buyer beware!):
CONAGUA/SMN declares El Nino is in effect.
Predicts above-normal number of tropical cyclones in NE Pacific for 2015:
The SMN data comes from the press release noted above.
The NOAA/NHC averages come from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac
The US NOAA/NWS/CPC (Climate Prediction Center) averages come from:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/background_information.html
Last year had a similar forecast, but I can't find the 2014 SMN forecast.
The US NOAA/NWS/NHC 2015 forecast should come out in late May.
I think the SMN updates their predictions in August.
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