Posted by Chuck Willer on October 22, 2015, 11:13 pm, in reply to "Re: Advisory #012"
98.232.236.28
From Accuweather
Currently a Category 5 hurricane, Patricia is expected to reach the Mexico coast as a Category 4 or Category 3 hurricane.
"Currently, Patricia is expected to make landfall sometime Friday evening along the southern coast of Mexico, just northwest of the city of Manzanillo," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.
"Areas along the coast can anticipate damaging winds and power outages," said Travis. This is in addition to the surge of tropical moisture that will likely bring an elevated risk for flash flooding and mudslides.
With a forecast path just to the west of Manzanillo, storm surge will also be a concern for the city and other points off to the east and south. High winds from the southwest could funnel a great deal of water into the bay areas as the center moves inland.
"Manzanillo sits right in the center of a bay," AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Miller explains. "Even though much of the city is not situated right on the beach, a significant storm surge of 1 to 2 meters (3 to 6 feet) is likely."
The storm surge can be locally higher.
Property owners and those vacationing at the resorts right along the bays should be prepared for inundation.
More than 300 mm (about 12 inches) of rain is possible, especially right near where the hurricane makes landfall. The Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima will likely have the heaviest rain, as well as the strongest wind speeds.
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