Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 13, 2015, 10:43 am 192.69.209.59
As of 10:30am Hurricane Carlos is predicted to be very, very close to us by Tuesday. 2-6 inches of rain could be coming our way. The below came from weatherunderground.com After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward. However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for a portion of the southwestern coast. Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from the previous one. It is Worth noting that the normally conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 13, 2015, 3:54 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.239.36------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by rejean laporte on June 13, 2015, 8:42 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 66.110.166.62
Sadely the eye will hit la Manz tuesday morning..Hope it will stay below cat 1. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by deanna on June 13, 2015, 4:45 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 187.147.11.75------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Will on June 13, 2015, 5:27 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.135.77------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Will on June 13, 2015, 5:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.135.77
I tried to upload a photo from my phone but it didn't work so I'll try from a laptop | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Will on June 13, 2015, 5:48 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.135.77
not going to work, apparently | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Will on June 13, 2015, 6:02 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.135.77
[url=http://]hurricane map | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Judy DB on June 14, 2015, 3:08 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos"
Since no one has posted since yesterday, I'm wondering if the power is out there. Ours was out for 20 hours in the Raquet Club near Ajijic--just from the wind and rain that were probably a biproduct of Carlos. I take it it isn't a good idea to head out for La Manzanilla on Monday or Tuesday?
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Posted by Daniel H on June 14, 2015, 3:21 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.245.206------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 14, 2015, 7:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.239.36
Oh, if only we had a crystal ball. The waiting is brutal! Now we'll wait until the 10pm report to be posted to see if indeed it does get back to hurricane force winds. Then there is the 4am report. Today was definitely the calm before the storm. | ------------------------Here he comes!
Posted by daniel c on June 14, 2015, 9:56 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 98.232.59.204------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 15, 2015, 10:22 am, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 64.140.161.101
Here's the 10amCDT map. The good thing is that it hopefully will be downgraded back down to a TS by the time Carlos is closest to us on Wednesday morning. A 39-73mph wind is nothing to relax about. The rains are still predicted to be very heavy. This place is dead quiet. You can even hear the birds singing all over town . Not a truck with loud speakers to be heard today. The skies are very grey, but no rain as of yet. It's been raining in Manzanillo for a few hours. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2015/tropical-storm-Carlos?map=5day | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Debbie W on June 15, 2015, 12:36 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.42.223
Good update especially the parts about the rain. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by deanna on June 15, 2015, 1:26 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.147.11.75------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Linda Mandala on June 16, 2015, 10:54 am, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 201.138.176.163
I don;t get it..coordinates for Carlos at 11am today say 17.5N and 104.3W We are at 19.05N and 104.3 W. ????To mme this looks like it should be almost here even tho moving at only 4 mph Why does it seem so calm and lovely out there??? Praying it does not come of course, but it seems strange it is so close and we don't even have rain? Weird. Linda Mandala | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Daniel H on June 16, 2015, 11:28 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.245.206
One word I see over and over in the talk about Carlos is the word small. There are no big waves hitting the rocks at Tenacatita like the storm last week. The thing I don't like is it will be going by us when there is a high tide | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Lisa Fern on June 16, 2015, 12:51 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.250.47
Thanks for posting our coordinates Linda! I was always wondering where we were at. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Dobie on June 16, 2015, 2:32 pm, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.204.119
Each degree of latitude is 60 nautical miles (a mile a minute), so a 2 degree difference is 120 NM. At 4 mph - you can do the math! | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Daniel H on June 16, 2015, 10:30 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.245.206------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by Daniel H on June 17, 2015, 3:28 am, in reply to "Hurricane Carlos" 201.138.180.211
It started to rain around 2:30 am then 1/2 of the power went out completely and the other 1/2 is at about 80% (which is what I am using now via extension chord from next door). I assume what is now Tropical Storm Carlos has arrived even though the satellite image shows it is still South of us. When you have the official discussion saying things like "However, it is an open question as to where exactly it is currently located" confusion is understandable. It has been a long wait, whatever is going to happen is finally going to do it. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 17, 2015, 4:04 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 201.138.178.123
As of 4 am the Coordinates of Carlos are 19.0N 14.8W LA MAnzanillo is 19.2N 14.7w. The winds are really getting blustery and it is really raining. | ------------------------Re: Hurricane Carlos
Posted by julieandrusty on June 17, 2015, 4:43 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 173.254.198.179
At 4:45am I would call the winds way more than blustery-pretty darn scary- and the rains are torrential. THe lights we do have are starting to flicker. So I had better post this asap.
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Posted by Debbie W on June 17, 2015, 7:43 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 189.164.226.78
Well, I must have missed it's powerful wind but the power is back and the pool is full, so I measure 3 inches. All is well here, I hope no one has significant problems. | ------------------------Is That All There Is?
Posted by Mark S on June 17, 2015, 8:37 am, in reply to "Re: Hurricane Carlos" 187.148.169.164
Is that all or do we have more on the way. Right now, the winds have died down, the rain is moderate, the power is back on. The neat thing is that when the power went off the winds kept the house nice and cool. Our road is a mess though, but still, that wasn't so bad. | ------------------------Re: Is That All There Is?
Posted by Debbie W on June 17, 2015, 8:55 am, in reply to "Is That All There Is?" 189.164.226.78
It was a "Tiny" hurricane. | ------------------------Re: Is That All There Is?
Posted by julieandrusty on June 17, 2015, 10:10 am, in reply to "Re: Is That All There Is?" 201.138.178.218
It seems to be over with more rain continuing for who knows how long. Roads are a mess, but luckily no other damage seen except for a few tree limbs down. River broke thru to the ocean. Once again La Manzanilla missed the worse of it. Carlos seems to be still traveling up the coast and has not officially come on shore. It's clean up time..... | ------------------------Re: Is That All There Is?
Posted by Daniel H on June 17, 2015, 10:16 am, in reply to "Re: Is That All There Is?" Edited by board administrator June 17, 2015, 10:19 am------------------------ |
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