Posted by Daniel H on February 11, 2016, 4:24 pm 189.164.106.40
Sitting at the beach bar the other night talking with a friend about hurricane Patricia, he stated some statistics about Patricia like the 8 mile eye etc. which made me realize how there were different statistics (or recollections of statistics). My emphasis was on the media, how I was getting emails and phone calls from people who were more freaked out than those who were here in the path of the storm. While fear mongering is common in the media I wondered where the information they were broadcasting originated. Were news outlets intentionally increasing the numbers? Were they intentionally focusing on just worse case scenarios? Was some of the panic originating in the style and tone of the broadcasters?
I went to Google and put in - hurricane Patricia - then used the advanced search tools to select only articles from October 23, 2015, the Friday the hurricane hit. I took samples from 12 of the top hits (notes with links in next post).
Much of the information on the news came from the World Meteorological Organization, National Hurricane Center, surprisingly some of the most radical statements came from them. Much to my surprise this quote from Wikipedia "Following Patricia's upgrade to Category 5 status, the National Hurricane Center called the storm "potentially catastrophic",[8] a source of criticism and praise from various media.[9] Citing the relatively limited damage and loss of life, some outlets, including the Associated Press,[10] claimed the agency was exaggerating the danger posed by the storm."
Intensity -
In an attempt to put the hurricane into perspective it was compared almost across the board to Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in 2013 killing than 6,000 people (via a link by the World Meteorological Organization). It was also stated to be stronger than Katrina, almost everyone knows what happened there.
What was barely mentioned is this "It’s difficult to compare tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, called typhoons, and eastern Pacific hurricanes if only because routine aircraft measurements don’t exist in the western Pacific. Unlike Patricia, Haiyan was never directly measured by an aircraft, so we don’t know its true intensity". And this "There is no question that this is an exceptionally intense tropical cyclone," he wrote. "But I wonder whether we really know that prior storms in the region have not been equally intense and we are just lucky to have measured this one."
Size -
This is one of the points of contention at the beach bar discussion and when you compare the different quotes one can easily see where the confusion comes from. Also I found the terms eye and core used interchangeably. While it doesn't show in the quoted statements below most had the idea that this was a huge storm, like Katrina.
"Hurricane Patricia was so enormous that Scott Kelly, the American astronaut aboard the International Space Station, posted a photo on Twitter of the storm with the warning: “It’s massive. Be careful!”"
"While the storm is the most intense in the western hemisphere, it is also extremely compact, with its buzzsaw-like area of hurricane force winds observed in a tight core extending only 30 miles away from the center of the storm".
"If there is any good news, it’s that Patricia’s incredibly strong winds are concentrated into a narrow region near its core. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory shows Patricia’s peak winds are confined to a span of just 15 miles across the center, which should help limit its impact at the time of landfall."
"Mexico's National Commission for Water, CONAGUA, said the eye of Patricia has a diameter of 10 kilometers, or 6.21 miles".
Information on the size of the eye doesn't seem to be a big priority NOAA stated a 7 n mi wide eye Friday morning.
Storm surge
CONAGUA, the Mexican national water commission, predicted waves about 40 feet at landfall.
"the storm surge from Patricia might not be as bad given the rapid intensification"
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It is fairly clear from reading the articles that some reporters focused on the most fear inducing information and other were more balanced. Given their tendency of news to exaggerate in combination with information that was already worse case scenario its no wonder the news came across as fearful as it did. The storm was decreasing in intensity 5 hours before land fall, it was clear that the storm was not going to hit Puerto Vallarta at least an hour or two before land fall, yet the news chose to ignore those bits of information and kept up the panic till they couldn't get any more viewer's out of it. Would the world have been watching if the news was closer to the truth, something like this....
One of the strongest hurricanes on record is approaching the cost of Mexico. While very dangerous the hurricane is small by hurricane standards and like most hurricanes expected to weaken before coming ashore. Due to the sudden intensification the storm surge should be less intense than it would normally be expected. As of now the hurricane is located just off shore and is projected to make landfall in a remote area on the west coast of Mexico well South of Puerto Vallarta. But preparations should be made by everyone in the area of possible land fall.
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Re: Hurricane Patricia notes
Posted by Daniel H on February 11, 2016, 4:26 pm, in reply to "Hurricane Patricia notes" 189.164.106.40
Original notes with links in the next post
Mexico's National Commission for Water, CONAGUA, said the eye of Patricia has a diameter of 10 kilometers, or 6.21 miles.
The closest contender to its size, at this point, might be Hurricane Camille, which battered the U.S. Gulf Coast in 1969. Patricia looks to be more powerful than that storm, as well as stronger than Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Katrina in 2005 and many others.
Patricia's intensity is comparable to Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in 2013, the World Meteorological Organization tweeted. More than 6,000 people died in Haiyan, due largely to enormous storm surges that rushed through coastal areas. Haiyan had 195 mph sustained winds when it made landfall, while Typhoon Tip was at 190 mph (and had a slightly lower pressure reading of 870 millibars) in 1979.
The speed of that transformation took meteorologists by surprise.
Hurricane Patricia was so enormous that Scott Kelly, the American astronaut aboard the International Space Station, posted a photo on Twitter of the storm with the warning: “It’s massive. Be careful!”
Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in the United States said Friday morning that the hurricane could inflict catastrophic damage and leave areas uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Before the hurricane struck, the World Meteorological Organization warned that its strength was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which caused devastation in the Philippines in 2013.
In the United States, only three Category 5 storms that made landfall have been recorded, Mr. Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center said: a 1935 hurricane that killed more than 400 people; Hurricane Camille, which hit Mississippi and killed 244 people in 1969; and Hurricane Andrew, which hit Florida in 1992, killing at least 10 people there and three in the Bahamas. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/24/world/americas/hurricane-patricia-landfall-mexico.html?_r=0
The storm will make landfall later Friday in a populated part of Mexico's Pacific coast, potentially wiping out tourist resorts and anything else in its path between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. The storm may strengthen or weaken some before it strikes land, but it is likely to still be a Category 5 storm at landfall,
The National Hurricane Center is warning of a "POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL" in southwestern Mexico later on Friday.
While the storm is the most intense in the western hemisphere, it is also extremely compact, with its buzzsaw-like area of hurricane force winds observed in a tight core extending only 30 miles away from the center of the storm.
Some computer model forecasts actually bring the storm ashore with sustained winds of an unheard-of 220 miles per hour, but those projections may be overdone.
Kerry Emmanuel, a hurricane expert at MIT, told Mashable in an email on Friday that the lack of a consistent record of eastern Pacific storms using hurricane hunter flights makes it difficult to determine if there is a global warming-related trend in such storms. Such flights are typically flown in the Atlantic and only occasionally in the eastern Pacific, so this was an exceptional case.
"There is no question that this is an exceptionally intense tropical cyclone," he wrote. "But I wonder whether we really know that prior storms in the region have not been equally intense and we are just lucky to have measured this one."
If the worst case scenario unfolds and the strongest part of this storm hits a populated area, the human suffering will be immense by any standard, let alone what we think can happen in this day and age. The loss of life from wind, surge, and flooding will be enormous, but the deep horror of the lasting effects—crippled infrastructure, illnesses, lack of food, water, clothing, and shelter—will linger for months after the storm dissipates.
We’ve seen world history today, and that might not even be the start of it.
My note: lots of if's in this article, a dependable sign of fear mongering?
NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins warned that Patricia would be "the most devastating storm to ever hit Mexico" with "catastrophic damage" likely between the posh resort of Puerto Vallarta and the bustling port city of Manzanillo.
CONAGUA, the Mexican national water commission, predicted waves about 40 feet at landfall.
Locals in coastal areas said Friday morning brought an eerie calm before the storm. "It's a beautiful morning in my neighborhood," said Jane Gorby, a California native who has lived for 15 years in the town of La Manzanilla. She said the severity of the pending storm snuck up on residents in a region used to hurricanes, and left them scrambling for a potentially unprecedented event.
"People were complacent, blasé, cavalier, but there's never been a storm like this before," Gorby said. "It's been a (Category) 1, 2, 3, 4. Now I wake up and it's a 5."
Gorby, like most residents, planned to ride out the storm in La Manzanilla, last hit hard by Hurricane Jova in 2011. "I have tequila. I have cat food. I have things to calm my nerves," she said. "I don't know how you prepare for something like this."
Haiyan killed more than 6,300 people and wiped out or damaged practically everything in its path as it swept ashore on 8 November 2013, destroying about 90% of the city of Tacloban in Leyte province.
The storm, which is a Category 5, the highest rating possible, had been expected to weaken somewhat before making landfall in the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, the Miami-based hurricane center said earlier.
The interior minister, Miguel Ángel Osorio, told Mexico’s Radio Formula on Friday morning that officials are especially worried about the safety of people in the Puerto Vallarta, in Jalisco state, and in the nearby community of Bahía de Banderas, in Nayarit state.
"This is really, really, really strong," WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis told a U.N. briefing in Geneva, according to Reuters.
"We are calm," said Gabriel Lopez, a worker at Las Hadas Hotel in Manzanillo. "We don't know what direction (the storm) will take, but apparently it's headed this way. ... If there is an emergency we will take care of the people. There are rooms that are not exposed to wind or glass."
By Friday morning, Patricia's power was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which displaced millions of people and left more than 7,300 dead or missing in the Philippines in 2013.
Hurricane Patricia’s arrival bears an eerie resemblance to another hurricane that swept into Mexico’s west coast in October of 1997 -- the year that gave the world the strongest El Niño ever recorded. Hurricane Pauline killed an estimated 230 people in Guerrero and Oaxaca states of southern Mexico as it made landfall in the city of Acapulco.
The National Hurricane Center, with official forecasting responsibility for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, all but ran out of words to describe the storm’s ferocity, labeling it “potentially catastrophic” and “incredible.” On Twitter, professional weather watchers went a step further, marveling at the storm’s record-breaking ability and fearing for Mexico’s coastal cities. Such a scenario—a quickly strengthening storm of unprecedented strength headed straight for land—is the stuff of meteorologists’ nightmares.
The storm threatens to be the strongest ever to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast, surpassing a 1959 hurricane that also ranks as the deadliest in that part of the Pacific
It’s difficult to compare tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, called typhoons, and eastern Pacific hurricanes if only because routine aircraft measurements don’t exist in the western Pacific. Unlike Patricia, Haiyan was never directly measured by an aircraft, so we don’t know its true intensity.
In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.
If there is any good news, it’s that Patricia’s incredibly strong winds are concentrated into a narrow region near its core. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory shows Patricia’s peak winds are confined to a span of just 15 miles across the center, which should help limit its impact at the time of landfall. Still, that’s little consolation for those in the storm’s direct path.
Impact from precursor disturbance - lots of damage before it made the news as a hurricane. Hurricane Patricia made landfall in Jalisco as a Category 4 hurricane
All I know, having spent several years in South Carolina as a youth, is that this was one powerful hurricane. Martin Savidge, from CNN, drove down with his crew on Friday morning expecting complete devastation. While we did have a good bit of damage, we actually came out of it fairly well. At least at our house. Our bouganvillas were stripped bare, lost some tejas upstairs, and my favorite tree lost a few limbs, but as we were experiencing it my most lasting memory is just how raw nature can be when she is pissed.
In the long run I don't think it matters to the folks that lost roofs, homes, trees, etc. whether Patricia was the strongest hurricane ever. It's enough to say that she sure was a b###h of one.
Thanks for the link J (if I can still call you that after your international attention). I used to hang out with academics (my girlfriends friends) and my take away from this article is "The rest comes down a bit to splitting hairs and how much uncertainty one is willing to allow.” how succinct.