The golden time
Posted by Chandra on March 16, 2020, 12:14 pm
David Fisman, professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto, has referred to this calm before the storm as “the golden time”. He sites three countries that have successfully stayed the fulminating spread of Covid 19 with careful social distancing. Please take five to listen to his interview. I found it helpful and hopeful. https://reddit.app.link/zlwHS1tiU4 Let’s consider being proactive by supporting and practicing social distancing before the “golden time” runs out, here in Mexico, as well as when we go home. Namasté, Chandra | ----------------Re: The golden time
Posted by Katy p on March 16, 2020, 12:27 pm, in reply to "The golden time"
Maybe theecivan sana Santa and later week hear him!!! The beach will be packed with no distance between any BODY2 | ----------------Re: The golden time
Posted by Daniel H on March 16, 2020, 12:48 pm, in reply to "The golden time"
Main thing I noticed about your link (good one) was the calm manner of both the interviewer and the guest. Over the years the news has gotten into a bad habit of creating as much drama as possible (as that increases viewership and revenue) using an excited voice filled with urgency i.e. everything is a life threatening crisis. Personally I don't watch news, I read it from selected sources, very few of which are main stream media. I do watch selected documentary and videos. Here is one from yesterday, its a bit long and slow going but very relevant and was made in 2018.
Source
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Posted by david dagoli on March 16, 2020, 2:07 pm, in reply to "Re: The golden time"----------------Re: The golden time
Posted by Kushad on March 16, 2020, 5:35 pm, in reply to "The golden time"
A very sensible and helpful interview. Wish we could hear more what Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are doing. | ----------------Re: The golden time
Posted by Al D Perez on March 16, 2020, 6:35 pm, in reply to "The golden time"
An interesting, even encouraging article. Interview Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt Nobel laureate and Stanford professor Michael Levitt unexpectedly became a reassuring figure in China at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Now he assures Israelis: statistics show the virus is on a downturn https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html Hope we will all ride the storm to safety. Keep calm and be well friends, it shall come to pass
| ----------------Daniels thread is spot on, everyone should in its entirety
Posted by Deano on March 18, 2020, 4:21 pm, in reply to "The golden time"
It’s in the numbers. Maybe he will post it in its entirety. | ----------------Re: Daniels thread is spot on, everyone should in its entirety
Posted by AL D Perez on March 18, 2020, 5:28 pm, in reply to "Daniels thread is spot on, everyone should in its entirety"
Here is the article in its entirety Jerusalem Post Israel News Nobel laureate: surprised if Israel has more than five coronavirus deaths Israeli Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt has predicted that no more than ten Israelis will succumb to COVID-19 – and even less with the new restrictions – since the number of cases is so few. By DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS MARCH 18, 2020 15:31 No more than 10 people will die in Israel as a result of the novel coronavirus disease known as COVID-19, Nobel Prize laureate Michael Levitt predicted on Wednesday as the government continued to impose additional restrictions on the general population. Levitt said that fears in Israel over the coronavirus were disproportionate to the threat, and that the number of cases in the country was uncertain due to reporting variances. "I will be surprised if the number of deaths in Israel surpasses 10," he said, adding that the Jewish state was "not on the world map for the disease." Levitt has risen to prominence in recent weeks thanks to his successful forecast of the slowdown in the rate of infection in mainland China last month. By looking at statistics emerging on the number of people infected and the number of deaths, Levitt identified a bounded growth pattern, showing that instead of the rate of infection increasing exponentially, it started to tail off. An American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel Prize for chemistry, Levitt predicted earlier this week that there will be no new infections in China by the end of March. Speaking to Kan's Reshet Bet radio on Wednesday, Levitt, who lives part-time in Tel Aviv, said that on a global scale, the number of cases in Israel is very small. Officially, Israel has reported 427 cases of COVID-19 since the pandemic began. "I don't believe the numbers in Israel, not because they're made up, but because the definition of a case in Israel keeps changing and it's hard to evaluate the numbers that way," Levitt said. "There is a lot of unjustified panic in Israel. I don't believe the numbers here, everything is politics, not math," he said. "I will be surprised if number of deaths in Israel surpasses ten, and even five now with the restrictions." Stressing that it is almost impossible to make comparisons country to country, because each government is taking a different approach to how they record cases, he said that, "South Korean tests are 10 times more sensitive than in Italy. If Italy measured cases like Korea, there would have been 10 times more cases." Instead, the best way to evaluate the figures was through the number of deaths reported, he said. So far, Israel has not registered any deaths due from COVID-19. It was through looking at the death statistics emerging from China that he was able to map the coronavirus's slowdown, and he has applied that technique to other countries. South Korea is already in the slow-down phase, he said, and Italy is nearing the same point. "Italy is already half way through the disease," he told Reshet Bet. "There has been a decrease in growth in the number of deaths in Italy in the past 2-3 days." To date there have been 31,506 cases recorded in Italy, according to John Hopkins University, of which 2,503 have resulted in death, and 2,941 people have recovered. "To put things in proportion, the number of deaths of coronavirus in Italy is 10% of the number of deaths of influenza in the country between 2016-2017," Levitt said. "Even in China it's hard to look at the number of patients because definition of patient varies, so I look at number of deaths. In Israel there are none, so that's why it's not even on the world map for the disease." However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place. “You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt told Calclist earlier this week. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances... the rate will keep going down.” Praising the Israeli government for its response, he added: "The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine. | ----------------Correction , Al Perezz post
Posted by Deano on March 18, 2020, 5:04 pm, in reply to "The golden time"----------------
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