Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones
Posted by Vicki Mercer on August 25, 2020, 4:01 pm------------Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones
Posted by ValerievD on August 25, 2020, 10:49 pm, in reply to "Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
That’s PER DAY! (Same article) | ------------Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones
Posted by Jerry on August 26, 2020, 7:49 am, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
Wish all countries would not only list positive cases but how many hospitalized and also how many deaths. The high cases could mean that we are getting to herd immunity??? | ------------Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones
Posted by Monte Morgan on August 26, 2020, 9:55 am, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
This is from the gob.mx website: https://coronavirus.gob.mx/fHDMap/mun.php Positive Cases: La Huerta 52, Cihuatlan 82, Manzanillo 1076 Suspected Cases: La Huerta 3, Cihuatlan 6, Manzanillo 50 Deaths: La Huerta 5, Cihuatlan 24, Manzanillo 133 This data is current as of 9:30 a.m. today. The numbers change throughout the day, (some days). It has been suggested that the reason why Manzanillo has such high numbers is because it is a port city. Hmm maybe, yet, perhaps it is because tourists from the greater Guadalajara metropolitan area often transiting through Manzanillo, stopping for meals, filling up at Pemex, stocking up at Sorriana. The Guadalajara region is showing approximately 13,000 active cases currently. Got it covered? In my community I see evidence of more people wearing masks and from all outward appearances, their chins and adams apples are safe. Noses and mouths, not so much. | ------------Covid *herd" immunity
Posted by James on August 26, 2020, 10:03 am, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
This article is fairly current I believe and talks about immunity, herd or otherwise. https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection#1 From the article page 2. Could Herd Immunity Protect Us? Herd immunity happens when a large part of the population -- the herd -- is immune to a virus. This can happen either because these people got vaccinated or had already been infected. Herd immunity makes it harder for a virus to spread. So even those who haven't been sick or vaccinated have some protection. The more contagious a virus is, the more people need to be immune for herd immunity to kick in. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is so contagious that experts estimate about 70% of people in a community will need to be immune to have herd protection. That number might be hard to get to without a vaccine or a whole lot of people getting sick.
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Posted by Vicki Mercer on August 26, 2020, 11:14 am, in reply to "Covid *herd" immunity"
I think herd immunity is wishful thinking based on scant information. Even if it proves effective, the cost will be an insane amount of death and disabilities. It is a true pity that the known approaches to this thing are not being adequately implemented in the U.S. and Mexico (masks, social distancing, widespread tests, contact tracing, and a willingness to shut down when and where flare-ups occur).
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Posted by Carell on August 26, 2020, 11:12 am, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"------------Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones
Posted by Linda Mandala on August 26, 2020, 12:36 pm, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
Anyone else noticed that this event has changed from "PANdemic to a "CASEdemic"? .Appreciated James info on herd immunity...no. of cases does not really mean everyone is going to die...what is more important is nos of deaths and NOT the numbers of cases...also there is way more testing going on so obviously there will be more positives being reported Linda
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Posted by Vicki Mercer on August 26, 2020, 3:10 pm, in reply to "Re: Models indicate new case numbers far higher than official ones"
I disagree, Linda. No one, including me, says that the number of cases means everyone is going to die. At this time, the best guess so far is that between 0.5%-2.00% of people who become ill might die. And some may survive but suffer long-term disabilities. If you are okay with a herd immunity strategy, that is a hell of a lot of deaths and suffering. And, the jury is out on whether a herd immunity strategy will even work. Read the entire article that James linked to, not just his extract. The point of widespread testing and the other methods I mentioned is to try to reduce the prevalence of cases and preferably eliminate the pandemic. In that sense, it is MORE important than the number of deaths. Naturally, it would be helpful to have an accurate count of deaths. That information is also not available in the USA or Mexico. You state, "there is way more testing going on so obviously there will be more positives being reported." First, there is not way more testing going on. Second, your statement sounds Trumpian. Finally, I do not even know what you meant by, "Anyone else noticed that this event has changed from "PANdemic to a "CASEdemic"?"
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