Finally using statistics that don't depend on how you classify the cause of death, giving a more accurate idea of what is going on and much easier to understand, and believe. Especially when presented in per day stats.
"The populous capital’s “excess mortality” from Dec. 1 to 12 - deaths above the typical number from prior years - averaged 214 a day, a government report said on Saturday. That compared to 141 excess deaths a day in November.
The rate peaked in May when Mexico City, with a population of some 9 million, recorded 320 excess deaths per day".
Mexico City's COVID-19 'excess mortality' reaches 214 deaths a day
You have a 0.86 chance of dying from COVID in Mexico city (a hot spot) and a 1.22% chance of dying in a car accident. When is the last time you thought about dying when getting in a car to drive someplace? Like never.
When you look at it that way, people taking a chance on COVID seems more understandable.
Edit - Now consider that La Manzanilla is not even close to being a hot spot, then look at a typical set of headlines for Mexico (at bottom) and you will get a hint of why most people have tuned out on COVID.
Note - The auto death percent was calculated by my piecing together stats and may be incorrect.
Posted by david dagoli on December 28, 2020, 11:28 am, in reply to "Apathy by the numbers"
If only one could trust the numbers that the Mexican government provides. They have already admitted twice that both case counts and deaths were under reported.
This is a spurious argument anyway: things like car crashes and heart attacks are not contagious. Covid is already the number one cause of death in Mexico.
On a positive note: we just talked with Dr. Martha who confirms that there have been no cases of Covid here in LM since last spring.
Thanks for the post. I am not trying to be difficult with you David, we have the same goal of clear, valid, easy to understand information. IMO anything is better than what is going on in the world now.
"If only one could trust the numbers that the Mexican government provides. They have already admitted twice that both case counts and deaths were under reported."
The numbers they used in the article (Excess Mortality) does not rely on judgment calls, it is just comparing all deaths, a number not based on how they died.
"This is a spurious argument anyway: things like car crashes and heart attacks are not contagious."
Of course crashes are not contagious, but they are good examples of risk comparison.
"Covid is already the number one cause of death in Mexico."
But you said above that the gov numbers being reported are unreliable. Using excess mortality shows that something is happening and COVID is the most likely cause, but the numbers do not rely on someones judgement, they are simple numbers of dead people.
"On a positive note: we just talked with Dr. Martha who confirms that there have been no cases of Covid here in LM since last spring."
Yes, that is positive but differs from what Tom reported from the Dr. at the clinic on October 30th.
I agree with you David. It's very misleading to compare deaths from car crashes vs. those from Covid. Here's some links that discuss this contention, although a couple are from back in March when this argument first surfaced. However, I do agree that the excess mortality numbers that Daniel talks about provide a better comparison from year to year.
"When you look at it that way, people taking a chance on COVID seems more understandable."
Unfortunately misleading information often leads to misguided decisions. So, yes, certainly an understandable reaction but maybe not a wise one.
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Re: Apathy by the numbers
Posted by Daniel H on December 29, 2020, 9:14 am, in reply to "Re: Apathy by the numbers" Edited by board administrator December 29, 2020, 1:28 pm
Thanks for the links and dialog Pablo.
Re your top two links, I had no idea the analogy had been used by Trump in the context of getting Americans back to work (#### US politics). Also none of those links used excess deaths as the method of counting so IMO are basically worthless stats.
My use of the analogy was in the context of Mexico/COVID with the benign intent of giving some clarity to the lack of concern by the people here in La Manzanilla and Mexico, not to validate condone the lack of concern.
Correction: I misspoke - Doctora Martha said there haven’t been any cases 'recently' for LM. I don’t have a timeline for the last confirmed case.
There are lots of folks with no masks getting off those busses from Guadlajara. It's best to not let your guard down. So far we have been lucky in this town, let’s hope that good fortune continues.
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Re: Excess Mortality
Posted by Kushad W on December 30, 2020, 4:30 pm, in reply to "Excess Mortality"
Posted by Pablo on December 30, 2020, 8:12 pm, in reply to "Re: Excess Mortality"
Oh no, not again with more links to this quack doctor site. I had hoped that the last time links to this site were posted here back in June would have been the last. But if you want to believe people who also think Bill Gates supports eugenics...
Posted by Kushad W on December 31, 2020, 3:48 pm, in reply to "Excess Mortality"
I’m likely to post more links of Dr Mercola when he quotes with references, data from the CDC, WHO, and leading science double blind controlled studies that aid us all in being better informed about COVID. No need to agree with Dr Mercola’s opinions. Simply take a look at the information, the sources. Ignore the opinions and keep your negative ones to yourself. Let’s encourage dialogue on issues that affect our individual well being here on La Manzanilla.
Well, of course you're going to keep posting this Dr. Mercola garbage, Kushad. It's not like I expected that you were suddenly going to have an epiphany about your views, though I truly wish you would desist. You talk about "quotes with references, data from the CCD, WHO and... etc." Sorry, I didn't see any of that in the two links you provided. And I certainly didn't see any credible medical information whatsoever. What I did see was a lot of very silly conspiracy theories being pushed. Just skip all the fluff and go to the conclusive paragraphs in these articles where you'll find the real "meat", i.e. that global elitists have a master plan to control us all (oh ffs...). For example...
"The Global Restructuring At this point, it should be obvious for anyone paying attention that the pandemic is being prolonged and exaggerated for a reason, and it’s not because there’s concern for life. Quite the contrary. It’s a ploy to quite literally enslave the global population within a digital surveillance system — a system so unnatural and inhumane that no rational population would ever voluntarily go down that road. It should also be clear that most if not all pandemic restrictions to freedom are meant to become permanent. In other words, these past nine months have been a preview of the world the technocratic elite wants to implement as part of the new social and economic order.
Now’s the Time to Fight Back It’s important to understand that now’s the time to fight back: to resist any and all unconstitutional edicts. Once the “new world order” is in place, you will no longer be able to do a thing about it. Your life — your health, educational and work opportunities, your finances and your very identity — will be so meshed with the automated technological infrastructure that any attempt to break free will result in you being locked out or erased from the system, leaving you with no ability to learn, work, travel or engage in commerce. It sounds far-fetched, I know, but when you follow the technocratic plan to its inevitable end, that’s basically what you end up with. The warning signs are all around us, if we’re willing to see them for what they actually are. The only question now is whether enough people are willing to resist it to make a difference. Most important of all is the need to release the fear. It’s a fearful public that allows the technocratic elite to dictate the future and rip away our personal freedoms. It’s fear that allows tyranny to flourish. Really look at the data, so you can see for yourself that panic is unwarranted, and that the so-called “solutions” to the pandemic are in fact a path of total destruction. This destruction — both moral and economic — is necessary for the Great Reset to occur. The technocratic elite need everything and everyone to fall apart in order to justify the implementation of their new system. Without this desperation, no one would agree to what they have planned."
So Kushad, by providing links to this world of kooks, is this how you "encourage dialogue on issues that affect our individual well being here in La Manzanilla"? With respect... no gracias!! Yup, according to the one article, we're all just idiots for wearing masks and adhering to lockdowns. Baaaaa, baaaaa...
And lastly, your links had zero to do with the subject of Daniel's post and amounted to a hijacking. He was trying to engage in a discussion about excess mortality and the usefulness of its data. Apologies to you you D. for my part in this digression. And while I'm "here", Feliz Año Nuevo to you, sir, and my gratitude for the immeasurable service you provide by maintaining this board - for many of us NOB, the one and only vicarious connection we have to LM.
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"world of kooks"
Posted by Red C on January 1, 2021, 11:11 am, in reply to "Re: Excess Mortality"
Anyone else lost? rojo
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Re: Excess Mortality
Posted by Beccistarr on January 1, 2021, 2:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Excess Mortality"
