Here is a video by the National Hurricane Center about the Cone of Concern. In it they say that the cone is where the center of the storm may go, and that they are correct 2 out of 3 times using the 3 day forecasts.
First the Cone of concern is a very generous error rate, and missing one out of 3 is a 30% fail rate. So lets say they are right about 60% of the time on the 3 day forecast and that is probably being generous. I shudder to think what the error rate is on the 5 day forecast.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cone_usage.php
I wish them the best in getting the kinks worked out, there is nothing I would like more than to have an accurate prediction of what to expect in La Manzanilla with a 90% trust level.
They will get there just not sure if anyone will still be listening to them by that point. Weather sites like Conagua and others should be stressing the fact that these are experimental numeric model predictions are not yet reliable.
If Conagua tells the fishermen to move their boats and nothing happens once, eh big deal. If Conagua tells the fishermen to move their boats twice and nothing happens then there is a chance they may ignore the third time, and that just may be the time that they loose their boat. And the other way as well, telling them there is nothing to worry about when it turns out there was. Trust is hard to gain and easy to loose.
269
Message Thread | This response ↓
« Back to index | View thread »
Be sure to visit www.lamanzanilla.info for more information about La Manzanilla Mexico.