La Manzanilla message board

And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Stephanie on September 10, 2021, 5:35 pm …for a visit on Monday? Guess she is forming off the coast of Guerrero now….and advisories went out in regards to more wind and rain! Happy we have had several days of sunshine to dry us out a bit…the river has gone down considerably but still running brown! This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 10, 2021, 5:55 pm, in reply to "And now Pamela is coming…" You are the second person to mention a storm forming off Guatemala. It certainly does not have a name yet, although Pamela my be next in line as a name. This is from the NOAA Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion "For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form along tropical wave off southern Mexico during the next day or two, and there is a medium chance this low could develop further into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it moves west- northwestward or northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, seas will build off southern Mexico Sat into Tue due to southwest swell. Coastal areas in southern Mexico from Chiapas to Guerrero may see hazard surf and heavy rainfall Sat through early next week." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/102151_MIATWDEP.shtml? Too bad you don't know how to link to your source. Perhaps now that you have a cell phone it will put you on the path to this era we live in now. This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Stephanie on September 10, 2021, 6:25 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Guerrero…not Guatemala…..! And doubt I will get the whole link thing ..but maybe I shall take a look on the next rainy day! It was a post from Josephina on LM live page! This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by david dagoli on September 10, 2021, 6:46 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" images google com upload image iphone This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 10, 2021, 6:56 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Thank you David. I didn't find the page you linked to but here is the website https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/ Your link shows it developing off Guatamela and possibly being in the area of Chiapas Guerro Monday. Stephanies post is inaccurate, it is not going to be here Monday and is not a storm yet. This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 11, 2021, 4:21 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" I should rephrase that, Stephanie's post is not inaccurate as David's link shows, but I am questioning the accuracy of the Conagua prediction as it is the only website I have found so far that makes it. Monday, September 13, 2021 Intense rains with punctual torrential rains (150 to 250 mm) : Michoacán and Guerrero. Very heavy rains with intense punctual rains (75 to 150 mm) : Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Oaxaca. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/pronosticos/pronosticossubmenu/pronostico-extendido-a-96-horas Others don't show anything https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/manzanillo/232522/daily-weather-forecast/232522 https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/cabea191f0c9cf2044b0eedec3318e1ac7e94c98b06c581159c8e5adeab64464#detailIndex5 including NOAA who is still chatting along the lines of my post above. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/110858_MIATWDEP.shtml? So what gives? This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 11, 2021, 9:14 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Windy has something on it but very strange the way it develops, moves very quickly up the coast, mainly staying off shore a ways, then just sits off our coast for a few days https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,16.236,-100.580,6 This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 11, 2021, 10:51 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Seriously, I don't know where these people like Windy and Conagua are getting their data from. NOAA is giving the storm a 60% chance of formation on the two day forecast and on the five day forecast. Neither forecast is anywhere close to Windy and Conagua. If Conagua was something like the weather channel I would say they were engaging in weather sensationalism to boost viewership but its not. I seem to be the only one interested in this so I'll stop harping on it. Here is a hot link to the 5 day forecast which will update automatically This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by James on September 11, 2021, 12:28 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" I don't think it's a lack of interest. (This image was free to use from Pixabay.com) This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 11, 2021, 12:37 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" No, that would be more a photo of me and my resistance to believing that yet another storm is coming. This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 10, 2021, 6:47 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" I wonder if Josephina linked to a source on LM Live or just repeated what she read? The other person who told me about it said it was forming off Guatemala, and the NOAA advisory says "Coastal areas in southern Mexico from Chiapas to Guerrero may see hazard surf and heavy rainfall Sat through early next week." So it must be South of there and moving North / Northwest. Just sayin, until someone does the work and links to a source. Onward. This message is locked.

Pamela on Sunday Posted by Monte M on September 12, 2021, 2:03 pm, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Things change. redimensionar jpg This message is locked.

Re: Pamela on Sunday Posted by Valerie D on September 12, 2021, 2:45 pm, in reply to "Pamela on Sunday" Well, crap - I was hoping for minimal wind and a smidgen of rain . . . This message is locked.

Re: Pamela on Sunday Posted by Daniel H on September 12, 2021, 3:41 pm, in reply to "Pamela on Sunday" "things change" yeah, it went from a 60% chance of becoming something to a 40% chance, that is about the only change. It never really had much of a chance to develop into a named storm which would have been Pamela as she is next on the list https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml#enp It was irresponsible (of sorts) of Conagua to post that prediction when it wildly contradicted what NOAA was predicting. Its not how you build confidence in a system and just another straw on the camels back of trust. While the report is signed by a meteorologist I tend to believe they are just dumping data like lows, highs etc into a computer program and publishing the results without much human intervention. There are several programs that do that, some good some not so good or vice versa depending on different situations. That said, there is something going on basically unrelated to that event down South and it does appear that we may get some rain in the next couple of days, possibly heavy at times but it won't be from a system that has a name or even a number. They show it on the Conagua website but my confidence in them is low and I am not familiar with the way they show data, its confusing for me. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/pronosticos/pronosticossubmenu/pronostico-extendido-a-96-horas And Windy. https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,18.282,-104.727,7 whis is easier to understand but equally dubious. Check out what the cumulitive rain is for the next 5 days......1 meter! https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,2021091518,18.282,-104.727,7 This message is locked.

Ventsky and earth.nullschool Posted by Daniel H on September 13, 2021, 8:36 am, in reply to "Re: Pamela on Sunday" A couple more animated weather programs for those who care to play with. I am liking Ventsky better than Windy the more I get to know it. All three of these programs use data without human intervention. I don't know if any are self learning AI, that takes feedback from actual conditions for corrections to prediction and is the holy grail of weather forecasting. They probably get data from airports, I have heard of some other programs that are getting feed back from individual cell phones to self learn. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.02;-104.28;8&l=rain-3h&w=0xIAb9A9A Earth nullschool was actually the first animated weather site I went to some years ago. I wasn't sure what to call it so I went to the about page and was surprised by some of the options. This program will give info on fires, auroras and more. I need to relearn this program. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-99.02,21.60,572 https://earth.nullschool.net/about.html This message is locked.

Ventsky and hurrican Nora Posted by Daniel H on September 13, 2021, 1:53 pm, in reply to "Ventsky and earth.nullschool" My wish for a source that lets me go into the past has been granted via Ventsky. Nora hit us on Saturday August 28th from 12 pm to say 3 pm. I can go back to that date and those exact hours and see what happened, basically to answer my question of why didn't we get a storm surge. I can also share a link from that date https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.33;-104.48;7&l=gust&t=20210828/18&w=0xIAb9A9A create a screen shot and create a live screen shot like the tropical tidbits gif but its not in a saveable format so I will have to learn that one. The link above will open at 12 pm August 28th set to wind gust. Put your mouse over La Manzanilla and it says 80 mph, which I figure is about right. Click on next button (bottom right corner) it will go forward to 3 pm, the hurricane has already made landfall North of us. Click next again at 6 pm it is already in Puerto Vallarta! Fast moving storm. Here is a link to 12 pm with the setting of waves https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.257;-104.619;9&l=wave&t=20210828/1800&w=0xIAb9A9A put the mouse over La Manzanilla and it says 18.4 feet, Uhh I don't think so, but notice the direction of the white lines, the waves are heading North. Click next to 3 pm and the waves are coming into the bay, La Manzanilla is on the right so we are kind of protected. 6 pm gives basically the same results with wave height down to 12.8 feet, So my guess is the reason we did not get a storm surge is because the direction of the waves never came this way. Its a flimsy guess but at least I have some data to start with. This message is locked.

Re: Ventsky and hurrican Nora Posted by Norma on September 13, 2021, 2:06 pm, in reply to "Ventsky and hurrican Norma" Not Norma, but Nora as I recall. This message is locked.

Re: Ventsky and hurrican Nora Posted by Daniel H on September 13, 2021, 2:15 pm, in reply to "Re: Ventsky and hurrican Nora" You are correct, my error https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml#enp I searched Ventsky by date, not storm name. This message is locked.

web cam Posted by john p on September 13, 2021, 8:49 am, in reply to "And now Pamela is coming…" Speaking of weather information, the temperature signature went away on the cam ? thank you ! This message is locked.

Re: web cam Posted by Daniel H on September 13, 2021, 8:54 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" You can opt out of all that shit on the screen by clicking the gear in the bottom right corner and un selecting each item. I wish it were opt in instead of opt out. I think I am getting ready to ditch Earthcam as they have 7 scripts they run on your computer, one of which is the dreaded facialbook. Another thing, if you don't like looking at that ugly white wall of wood you can zoom in and then use your mouse to adjust the cam so you don't see it. The cam won't be as clear as it is when zoomed out though, life is full of trade off's. I'm sorry the tide gard (wood wall) even has to be there but it helps keep the patio clean when the ocean is acting up and it helps me be less paranoid of sudden changes in the height of the tide. I am definitely getting old, I hate it. This message is locked.

Re: web cam Posted by john p on September 13, 2021, 9:30 am, in reply to "Re: web cam" Very cool, thank you for the info.. I did go to earthcam website to try and sus out what they had avaiable and how everything works but it was a bit tedious. I think they like to keep a lot of details under wraps until you opt in.. Thank you for the cam !! This message is locked.

Re: web cam Posted by Daniel H on September 13, 2021, 10:23 am, in reply to "Re: web cam" I don't know who is running the show there but I bet they are elderly as they just don't get it. I sent them an email when I got 700,000 hits on the cam during Patricia and suggested that they have the signature (mine was lamanzanilla.com) permanent so that when a disaster hits and news uses their cam footage the logo is not removable. Talk about free advertising, it would be easy to get people to run a cam and EarthCam would become the go to website for disaster coverage. Their response was to move the options you mentioned above to opt out instead of being at the bottom like they used to be. Someone is going to come along and blow them into the stone age (which is where they basically are). Remember VRBO (vacation rentals by owner). They had the almost exact set up as Airbnb but didn't capitalize on it via social media, and are now history. Edit: I do have to say a very big thank you to EarthCam for their free streaming service. When I was first learning streaming some years ago (things have changed a lot since then) I was looking at $100 usd per month to stream on sites that were difficult to learn how to set up. EarthCam saved me and for that I am eternally grateful. This message is locked.

Re: web cam Posted by Daniel H on September 14, 2021, 9:37 pm, in reply to "web cam" Not sure why the temperature went away. I did go to my EarthCam account to see what I could do to clean up the page. I took off the name of the Cam, that helped, and added a little abbreviated personal opinion to the remaining signature. (I had limited letters to use) Oh, and I finally changed the time so it is correct! End a revolution, start a revolution, the world goes round and round. Power to the people, right on! https://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 14, 2021, 7:30 am, in reply to "And now Pamela is coming…" Since this thread is 80% my post I would like to kind of wrap it up. My normal weather routine is to go to a site like tropical tidbits (or any satellite loop) and see whats coming our way. Mainly I am looking for spinners (clouds starting to rotate in a counter clockwise direction). When I see that I go to NOAA Hurricane Center and see what is predicted. I never go to any of the websites like weather.com or Conagua to check weather. If Stephanie had not posted (indirectly) the Conagua prediction, and since nothing ever started spinning on the weather loop, this entire prediction and drama would have occurred without my knowing about it. I'm not faulting Stephanie, I am making note of what happens when predictions go wrong. The worst part is a loss of faith in the system. The rest is much ado about nothing. This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Stephanie on September 14, 2021, 9:43 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" If you check out the link I sent you, accuweather, you might find they are pretty spot on with predictions…I have cued in Manzanillo as the check point as LM does not compute with their check points or whatever! And the original site I sent on Pamela was from the site many locals use I have found the best weather reports for up to date local news comes from the fishermen…they get it! This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 14, 2021, 10:07 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" You mean the link you sent me by email? The very first link you have ever sent? The one that got me all excited? The one you didn't post just now? You mean this link? https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/manzanillo/232522/weather-forecast/232522 "And the original site I sent on Pamela was from the site many locals use" In addition to my closing points I would add that I became much more aware of which sites are just publishing the results of programs and which sites are actually using a meteorologist to interpret the results. Programs are getting better but this Pamela event proves quite clearly that they are not there yet and human interpretation is necessary. In addition, it was not just the prediction it was the wording of the Conagua site the put the icing on the cake of wrongness. Here is a Google translation of what they said with some notes inserted by me in capitol italics that would have made the prediction more realistic i.e. Conagua spoke as if it was fact, not prediction. September 9, 2021 for September 10, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE a low pressure is formed in the pacific and A 50% CHANCE on the 10th it will become a siclon IF IT DOES BECOME A SICLON IT WILL BE with the name pamela in front of wings shores of Guerrero already making its effects felt in the municipality of Cihuatlan at night on Monday, September 13 and on Tuesday and Wednesday a lot of water and strong winds this comes closer to earth than the hurricane that has just flooded parts of melaque that take precautions the land. It is already very wet and rivers and streams will still carry water. This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Stephanie on September 14, 2021, 10:54 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" Yep…that be the one! Now saying it will be raining in Manzanillo in…25 minutes..let’s see! That makes it 11:15 here! This message is locked.

Re: And now Pamela is coming… Posted by Daniel H on September 14, 2021, 11:12 am, in reply to "Re: And now Pamela is coming…" I looked at the site and couldn't find where it said a specific time it will start raining, and Manzanillo is an hour away from here, just sayin. Also when they say 69% chance of rain, they mean that there is a 69% chance it will rain somewhere in the forecast area. You have to know the boundaries of the forecast area to put that into perspective. If the report is not signed by a meteorologist its probable it is only the results of a computer program, something to keep in mind. Although predictions of current day events are probably quite good and you could use the prediction features of Windy or any animated weather site and get some good results. For current day, anything outside of that get that salt shaker out and take a hit. Meteorologist used to use the accuracy of their predictions as a badge of honor. I wonder what the accuracy is of the current computer programs? Better, worse? Certainly cheaper. This message is locked.

« Back to index