Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Mark S. on October 6, 2021, 6:34 am
I woke up and checked different weather sites to see what I could expect on my swim this morning. I was fooling around with the forecast option on Ventusky and, to my surprise, took note a a fairly strong low pressure system on track to hit our area next Tuesday and Wednesday. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=17.4;-105.2;5&l=rain-3h&t=20211013/1800 The Tropical Tidbit forecasts for October 12th and 13th reflect the same prognostication. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=epac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2021100606&fh=162 (I tried to copy images from my sites to post here but I apparently lack the skill to do so). NOAA simply shows a large orange blob well to our south with the notation that it has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Who knows what we actually have in store for us, weather wise, next week. But, it does make me a bit apprehensive when two weather sites of proven past accuracy agree on what to expect in the coming days. Just a FYI. | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Daniel H on October 6, 2021, 3:06 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"
Thanks Mark. So we have to algorithms and a human. After the Conagua event last month I'm not ready to shift authority to dataism and remain firmly fixed to humanism, for the time being. i.e I like my forecast to have a signature. "Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/061728_MIATWOEP.shtml | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Mark S. on October 7, 2021, 7:11 am, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
Using the log in info from my post yesterday, check out Ventusky and Tropical Tidbits from Oct. 13 1:00 p.m. to Oct. 14th 1:00 p.m. Both suggest that we are in the direct path of a significant tropical cyclone. Daniel's preferred NOAA site only prognosticates in five day increments and this morning gave the low pressure system currently churning to the south of us a 70% chance of developing into a cyclone within the next five days. By tomorrow or Saturday, NOAA is most likely to assign a greater likelihood to the cyclone formation and start showing graphs of its likely path (alas, Daniel, much based on artificial intelligence interpretation human data input). It will be what it will be but it's fun to follow these storms in the rainy season!! | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Daniel H on October 7, 2021, 9:25 am, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
I concur, it is fun. As Yuval talked about in that link, artificial intelligence (neural networking) is only going to improve, and Improve very rapidly once it becomes self learning. One day it will be better than the human forecasters. When that happens it will quietly assume more authority than humans. I was thinking yesterday of contacting the people at Ventusky and asking them if the algorithm they are using has a name. Then seeing if Windy is using the same algorithm or one with a different name. I want to get to know these algorithms so I can root for my favorite one. | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Ronald Goodspeed on October 7, 2021, 5:23 pm, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
NOAA is now in agreement with Ventusky and Windy. Weather Underground agrees as well. | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Daniel H on October 7, 2021, 6:58 pm, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
Noah currently says 80% chance of becoming something within 5 days moving westward to west-northwestward, they won't do a track until it does become something. Ventusky has it formed and hitting our area in 5 days.
| -------------------The name of the algorithm
Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2021, 5:19 am, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
Did a bit on this From the Ventusky About us https://www.ventusky.com/about "At our company, we focus on weather prediction and meteorological data visualisation." "The main provider of meteorological data for Ventusky is DWD and NOAA." From the FAQ https://www.ventusky.com/faq What models do you use? You can find information on the model displayed in the bottom left corner. There you can also change the model. Information on models used can be found on the Internet (by searching the name of the model concerned, e.g. GFS) or in short in our Help section. Why does your forecast differ from a forecast on a different website? We do not create our own forecasts on the Ventusky website but we display data from numerical models. Data Sources https://www.ventusky.com/sources The prediction part for GFS https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/gfs If you find more add it on but so far the name of the algorithm for the US would be GFS
| -------------------Re: The name of the algorithm
Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2021, 8:25 am, in reply to "The name of the algorithm"-------------------Switching between models
Posted by Daniel H on October 8, 2021, 7:01 pm, in reply to "Re: The name of the algorithm"-------------------Re: Switching between models
Posted by david dagoli on October 9, 2021, 9:50 am, in reply to "Switching between models"-------------------Re: Switching between models
Posted by Daniel H on October 9, 2021, 10:50 am, in reply to "Re: Switching between models"
Where is that from? kinda useless without that info. | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by john p on October 9, 2021, 3:55 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"-------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Daniel H on October 9, 2021, 6:38 pm, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"
Interesting each site has its own little features. You had storm track enabled in your link (click on icon top left corner) Clicking on that track brings up info in a pop up box. First time I have heard it called Invest 91E. I wonder why the NHC is not referring to it by that name? In that pop up box it gives the km/h (kilometers per hour) which says 45. How can it have winds of 45 km/hr and not be spinning? Also in that pop up box, lower right corner is "info". Click on that and you get the latest info from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center which is where I usually go for info. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ At the top of that page is a tab marked Eastern Pacific, it will take you to a 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. At the bottom of that image is a link to a 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook which gives an cone of where it may go, which is duplicated on the Zoom link you sent. I would say that of all the programs showing information this one is the most connected to the National Hurricane Center data, and doesn't venture into predictions beyond what they say. But as you say, still not spinning.
| -------------------Finally the tiniest bit of spinner
Posted by Daniel H on October 9, 2021, 8:48 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"
Probably only noticed cause I'm looking for it. Click on the photo and select play Still listed as "There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time." on the NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
| -------------------Tropical depression 16E
Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2021, 10:20 am, in reply to "Finally the tiniest bit of spinner" Edited by board administrator October 10, 2021, 10:28 am
Finally a Tropical depression. Becoming a tropical storm is a mere 1 mile per hour difference (as far as I can tell) so count on that happening soon. Tropical Depression A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph (33 knots) or less. Tropical Storm A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots). https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions I went to Ventusky Tuesday 12 pm and cycled through the models, quite a difference. Only GFS has it getting up to hurricane speeds. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=20.6;-105.0;4&l=wind-10m&t=20211012/1800&m=gfs&w=0xIAb9A9A GFS (Global forecast system) is what the NHC (National Hurricane Center) aka NOAA use. GEM is Canada Icon is ICON (EU), ICON (DE) DWD Open Data Server There is a literal shit ton more https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteorology_institutions The learning curve on Numerical weather prediction is a vertical cliff, I think these people have too much money as the number of divisions and divisions within those divisions is literally impossible to keep up with. Numerical prediction has its own set of issues starting with the way the data is collected by the satellites, processed by an algorithm and what computer it is being run on can change the results. Then you get to all the variables on the planet that can affect the outcome and you are well into the quagmire that is currently happening. "There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged" "An accurate track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect, forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also be incorrect." "A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction#Tropical_cyclone_forecasting The situation is so chaotic that their solution is to run all the models, something called Ensemble forecasting (link below). Here are a few links you can go through if your bored or interested (in the follow the bread crumb order I gathered them) Global Forecast System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System#Accuracy Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc_new.php European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php Watch/Warning/Advisory Definitions https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined Category 1 Hurricane Damage | Hurricane Damage by Category https://www.houselogic.com/finances-taxes/home-insurance/what-damage-can-hurricane-cause/ Invest (meteorology) - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_(meteorology) Saharan Air Layer - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saharan_Air_Layer Madden–Julian oscillation - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation GEFSv12 Official Evaluation https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ Numerical weather prediction - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction Tropical cyclone forecast model - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model Ensemble forecasting - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Centers_for_Environmental_Prediction National Weather Service Organization https://www.weather.gov/organization/#local List of meteorology institutions - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteorology_institutions Tropical cyclone forecasting - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecasting Tropical Definitions https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 16 & 17 - Registry of Open Data on AWS https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-goes/ Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc_new.php
| -------------------Re: Tropical depression 16E
Posted by Stephanie on October 10, 2021, 1:12 pm, in reply to "Tropical depression 16E"
Well if it helps, the fishermen are moving their boats up! | -------------------Cone of Concern
Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2021, 2:04 pm, in reply to "Re: Tropical depression 16E" Edited by board administrator October 10, 2021, 2:22 pm
If they were working by instinct (humanism) I would say great, but odds are they are listening to Conagua, which is using the numerical prediction of the Global forecast system (GFS (dataism) which to put it kindly is in its infancy. Here is a video by the National Hurricane Center about the Cone of Concern. In it they say that the cone is where the center of the storm may go, and that they are correct 2 out of 3 times using the 3 day forecasts. First the Cone of concern is a very generous error rate, and missing one out of 3 is a 30% fail rate. So lets say they are right about 60% of the time on the 3 day forecast and that is probably being generous. I shudder to think what the error rate is on the 5 day forecast. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cone_usage.php I wish them the best in getting the kinks worked out, there is nothing I would like more than to have an accurate prediction of what to expect in La Manzanilla with a 90% trust level. They will get there just not sure if anyone will still be listening to them by that point. Weather sites like Conagua and others should be stressing the fact that these are experimental numeric model predictions are not yet reliable. If Conagua tells the fishermen to move their boats and nothing happens once, eh big deal. If Conagua tells the fishermen to move their boats twice and nothing happens then there is a chance they may ignore the third time, and that just may be the time that they loose their boat. And the other way as well, telling them there is nothing to worry about when it turns out there was. Trust is hard to gain and easy to loose.
| -------------------Boca surf report
Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2021, 2:58 pm, in reply to "Re: Tropical depression 16E" Edited by board administrator October 10, 2021, 3:08 pm
The Boca Surf report says Wednesday will be big waves heading South East, which is directly into La Manzanilla. (not sure of their source). https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bocadelos-Iguanas/forecasts/latest/six_day If I remember correctly last time I saw that red triangle we got smacked. Ventusky says 8 ft on Wednesday 8 pm, its 5 ft now. I haven't been doing this long enough to know wtf that means as far as experience on the beach, besides bigger. Also learning that wave prediction is different that track or intensity prediction, its supposed to be one of the more reliable predictions if I recall correctly (too much information lately). But also to keep in mind that Wednesday is 3 days out, it ain't a hurricane yet. It's the intensity stupid.
| -------------------Using the past to understand the future
Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2021, 8:40 pm, in reply to "Boca surf report" Edited by board administrator October 10, 2021, 9:57 pm
"Ventusky says 8 ft on Wednesday 8 pm, its 5 ft now. I haven't been doing this long enough to know wtf that means as far as experience on the beach, besides bigger. " I used Ventusky to go back to June 27th at 6 pm when the big waves took out the webcam. The wave height at that time was 13.9 feet a hell of a lot more than the 8 feet predicted for Pamela on Wednesday 8 pm (the highest I could find earlier). https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.32;-104.48;8&l=wave&t=20210628/0000&w=0xIAb9A9A Notice I have the wave setting on - significant wave height - click on the little i next to where it says - automatic icon - to get info about that setting and how its displayed. I tried to go find out what Ventusky was predicting a few days before but that info is either not available or I don't know how to access it. At least now I have a general idea of what to expect from Pamela. I'm not getting that from the current reports but I can get an idea if I put a little work into it. I got immediate relief from that information. at least I have something to compare it to. One day that info will be made more available. whatever it takes for people to get an idea of what is going to happen. We will eventually give dataism the authority to tell us what will happen but that time is not now, not as long as I have to do the work to feel informed. Besides, doesn't dataism need humanism to give it relevance? What does a 13 foot wave height mean if I don't relate it to a human experience that is compared with other human experiences, like a 5 foot wave height?
| -------------------Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory
Posted by Daniel H on October 10, 2021, 4:11 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?" Edited by board administrator October 10, 2021, 4:13 pm-------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Kim on October 10, 2021, 5:52 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"-------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by david dagoli on October 10, 2021, 11:40 pm, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?"-------------------Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
Posted by Daniel H on October 11, 2021, 9:05 am, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSEP.shtml I think one would have to go to school just to learn how to access all the info these people put out. Not to lean the info, just to access it. | -------------------Re: Another Storm Brewing?
Posted by Steve on October 11, 2021, 12:07 pm, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?"
I look at tons of sites, but I like checking AccuWeather every few hours to see what is happening now. IMO very humble opinion, going to pass by with some rain, moderate winds and some heavier surf.
| -------------------Accuweather
Posted by Daniel H on October 11, 2021, 12:45 pm, in reply to "Re: Another Storm Brewing?" Edited by board administrator October 11, 2021, 1:03 pm-------------------Update
Posted by Daniel H on October 12, 2021, 8:20 am, in reply to "Another Storm Brewing?" Edited by board administrator October 12, 2021, 8:24 am-------------------Boca surf report
Posted by Daniel H on October 12, 2021, 10:49 am, in reply to "Update" Edited by board administrator October 12, 2021, 10:54 am-------------------Tropical Storm Pamela
Posted by Daniel H on October 12, 2021, 7:03 pm, in reply to "Update"
Pamela is back to being a tropical storm, it most likely won't hit land as a hurricane 1,2 or as accuweather predicted a 3. They got the track pretty close but blew the intensity big time. Lots of people are looking at the current conditions and wondering why they moved their boats, closed their restaurant or did all the preparations. No good deed goes unpunished, NOAA's intentions were good but we know the road to hell is paved with those. This is why it must be stressed from start to finish that these are new experimental products, it may take the shine off of when they are right, but when they are wrong it helps to protect the absolutely essential trust that they must have to be taken seriously and to protect lives. | -------------------Re: Tropical Storm Pamela
Posted by Kathy on October 13, 2021, 7:36 am, in reply to "Tropical Storm Pamela"
Well said! Better to be safe than sorry. | -------------------
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