Tropical Depression
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds (one-minute average) of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical Storm
A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions
I went to Ventusky Tuesday 12 pm and cycled through the models, quite a difference. Only GFS has it getting up to hurricane speeds.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=20.6;-105.0;4&l=wind-10m&t=20211012/1800&m=gfs&w=0xIAb9A9A
GFS (Global forecast system) is what the NHC (National Hurricane Center) aka NOAA use.
GEM is Canada
Icon is ICON (EU), ICON (DE) DWD Open Data Server
There is a literal shit ton more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteorology_institutions
The learning curve on Numerical weather prediction is a vertical cliff, I think these people have too much money as the number of divisions and divisions within those divisions is literally impossible to keep up with.
Numerical prediction has its own set of issues starting with the way the data is collected by the satellites, processed by an algorithm and what computer it is being run on can change the results.
Then you get to all the variables on the planet that can affect the outcome and you are well into the quagmire that is currently happening.
"There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged"
"An accurate track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect, forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also be incorrect."
"A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction#Tropical_cyclone_forecasting
The situation is so chaotic that their solution is to run all the models, something called Ensemble forecasting (link below).
Here are a few links you can go through if your bored or interested (in the follow the bread crumb order I gathered them)
Global Forecast System
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System#Accuracy
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc_new.php
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Watch/Warning/Advisory Definitions
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined
Category 1 Hurricane Damage | Hurricane Damage by Category
https://www.houselogic.com/finances-taxes/home-insurance/what-damage-can-hurricane-cause/
Invest (meteorology) - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invest_(meteorology)
Saharan Air Layer - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saharan_Air_Layer
Madden–Julian oscillation - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation
GEFSv12 Official Evaluation
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/
Numerical weather prediction - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction
Tropical cyclone forecast model - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model
Ensemble forecasting - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_forecasting
National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Centers_for_Environmental_Prediction
National Weather Service Organization
https://www.weather.gov/organization/#local
List of meteorology institutions - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteorology_institutions
Tropical cyclone forecasting - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecasting
Tropical Definitions
https://www.weather.gov/mob/tropical_definitions
NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 16 & 17 - Registry of Open Data on AWS
https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-goes/
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc_new.php
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